The current crisis is financial in nature

x the gaze of Sébastien Bazin, President of Colony Capital Europe

"A year and a half, the conclusion is simple, the volume of transactions (warehouses, buildings and offices) has been divided by four. This is due to the financial capacity of the buyers groups, which is no longer the same, and the possibility of debt, which is now non-existent. So, we are not in a real estate crisis. The current crisis is financial in nature. We grieve no forced seller, except perhaps in small pockets formed by the Spain and England. It is therefore not very appropriate to investment "on the back of someone".

For thirty years, the real estate crisis occurred in a context of double-digit interest rates. Monthly payments at time. This time, we are in a much healthier case, and this is why I think that the market will recover much more quickly. Supply, professionals did not shit for three years, except in Spain. Then, of course, there is no demand, but there is also no oversupply. Two-digit interest rates are a bad memory and there are more fans among developers. Former real estate crisis came to a number of actors who thought that it was easy to make money with real estate. This category of persons disappeared. All those who have lived the last crisis were sufficiently serene and cautious in their investments to not further amplify the current crisis.

In regards to Colony Capital, I said that we are out of any form of real estate in the first half of 2007. This is done by chance. Our investments in 2002, 2003 and 2004 came to maturity.

Fact remains that the valuations of real estate still fell from 40 to 50, regardless of the country (France, Germany, England). For my part, I do not think that commercial real estate decline more than today ' today, but rents will fall for mechanical reasons. I am thinking in particular of the impact of unemployment. We expect the first effects in 2010, but the questions now. The release of the premises will be on the 2010-2011 year and there will inevitably be renegotiations with the owners, which will lead to falls in rent (between 5 and 15).

Also, it is probably one of the first crises in which it has a fairly large insight on what it has in itself. On the next eighteen months, interest rates will not increase (in any case not excessive). It is known that the rent will fall. On the other hand, several positive points can be noted. First of all, some markets such as the Spain and England host many real estate companies who have very nice assets. They need fresh money and own funds to restructure their balance sheets, they are vendors. For a time, funds like ours are collected in one good eye. They intervene and rescue capital providers, of "rescue capital", as the Americans call. Moreover, the US pension funds recovering on real estate assets. Even if this is height of 1 or 2 of their outstanding, this still represents hundreds of billions of dollars. For all these reasons, the spiral is quite positive.

Finally, from the wall of debts accumulated by the real estate acquisitions and LBO operations, I have confidence in the attitude of the banks. Deadlines are likely end of 2010 to 2012, for all transactions beginning in 2007-2008. It is indeed a big question mark, but we have lot of responsible actors from us. No banker will release another banker of its current position. There may therefore be a new liquidity and more equity introduced by operators like us.

x Board: target an unprecedented demand for real estate report

"New thing, notes Sébastien Bazin, where there was no major transaction until the end of August, in all European countries, there is a significant acceleration in demand for all types of commercial property between 50 and 250 million euros since September." This is a new appetite for real estate rental property located in a European capital. The explanation comes from an influx of cash for proper compensation. A number of private investors and investment fund families recovering to report buildings in a price range that asks them not a high debt. However, the choice of location are very typed. In France, 90 of the investments are focused on Paris-Ile-de-France. In England, pass to London. In Germany, the request is better distributed between Frankfurt, Munich and Berlin. In Spain, the market is limited to Barcelona and Madrid.

In fact, 90 of the great institutional go only in cities where there is liquidity. This limits the selection to the European capitals. French regions attract rather historic long-term investors. There is no institutional great, except the Banques Populaires or the local Caisses d'Epargne. "But none of the pension funds, foreign or American, going to settle in the France in a massive way."