According to analysts growth will be closer to the 3

Growth of turnover in berne, declining and, above all, persistent uncertainties about a changing economic environment... The market shows signs of concern about Spir Communication, group specializing in free newspapers to advertisements, the thematic press (mainly real estate) and non-addressed printed matter (advertising leaflets) d'Aix.

The action, which had attention in 2004 ( 95) and the first seven months of 2005 ( 30), lives a descent to the underworld to the popularity it had generated.

After three warnings in the past twelve months, the title has lost 40 from its highest to fall to its lowest level for two years and a half! And, as the warnings launched by society, not only the slide continues, but recovery ratios do not become attractive. To pay more than 12 times the benefits for 2007, Spir Communication is located in the middle of the market and the other media values.

For analysts, only the high level of the dividend (5 euros in 2005) today protects Spir Communication to a more significant decline. But this protection remains valid as long as the company maintains its historical distribution rate (about 60 of the net), thus its results. "SPRI Communication was a value of performance which had become a value of growth in 2004." "But it is now again a pure performance value, dividend constituting a strong cushion against downward", said one of them.

Competition from Internet

Spir Communication messages do nothing to reassure on the prospects of results while the issues that society faces opening of television advertising for the large distribution, ads on the Internet boom require specific answers. New evidence has been given in the publication of the turnover for the first nine months of the year, the Group evoking "sales less dynamic than expected", up only 3.5. Thus, the objective of a growth of 7 of the activity this year, which had already been revised downward since the Group was about 10 increase in January, shall not be required, implicitly acknowledged the Spir Communication Directorate. According to analysts, growth will be closer to the 3.5 that is the rate recorded in the first nine months of the year and 7 originally expected.

Migration of ads

Beyond the economic aspects, the advertising market is very difficult in the third quarter, analysts raise structural issues mostly. For the two pillars of society, free press announcements and printed non-addressed, that represent each about 40 of the turnover of the group, the questions have not yet found response, far from it.

The first activity suffers from a migration of ads to the Internet. Increasingly, individuals who wish to sell a good turn to sites on the Web, most often in the possibility of free of charge publish their announcement that they have to pay the paper. This movement, which takes a magnitude more larger, is now officially recognized by NIRS. "The Group accusing a phenomenal delay on the Internet, clients that he has lost on its paper media not found on its Internet offerings", notes an analyst. As a result, announcement newspapers broadcast by Spir Communication (175 in metropolitan France) lose little by little their content declining volume, directly threatening the advertising revenue that generate these same journals and these ads-backed.

"It is all the economic model that is threatened," said another specialist. For the moment, analysts estimate that the measures taken to counteract this trend by the group are insufficient, while the clock is ticking as the migration from paper to Internet is done at a more steady pace.

The other pillar printed without address suffers, as several media, from the perspective of the arrival of large distribution to television advertising. The non-addressed printed matter constitute one of the pillars of communication of the large distribution strategies. A priori, can certainly say that Spir Communication is protected since advertising on non-addressed printed relate primarily promos for signs and special operations, which will be banned on television. Remains that the large distribution groups say: they will be advertising on television for the moment to increase their overall volume of communication.

"Admittedly, the distribution will not stop from one day to the next day to make calls to print without address, but this sector could be victim of arbitrations, and as the media will be increasingly competed with the arrival of the techniques of" marketing on line ", which have the advantage, for a large surface, to have a qualitative and quantitative consumer faster and more accurate return."says Vincent Le Sann, responsible for financial analysis in Portzamparc.

Printed addressed

Carat estimates, the sector of non-addressed printed matter thus risk losing sales EUR 100 million, or 15 to 20 of the total volume of the market! But these figures are difficult to verify and to anticipate precisely. "Not only we have difficulty in measuring the impact of the arrival of the large distribution on television, but, more, the group does not, communicate what makes the situation even more uncertain," said an analyst.

So far, everything is not so dark in the Spir Communication opportunities. First, addressed printed are a real growth in the medium term (read below) relay. Then, the press theme real estate surfing rates of growth in two digits ( 27.4 in the first nine months of the year) deemed very encouraging by the financial community. Finally, the group begins to display some significant results on the Internet, as the Caradisiac site. But, beyond these successes, which do not form a trend, the road is long for sustainable of market confidence.