We have no crisis in our financial system

So, last September, he had been able to anticipate the financial tsunami that today dominates the world news, the Canadian Conservative Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, have not caused the early legislative elections to be held today. In power since early 2006, he was the highest in the polls and virtually assured to get a weak and divided opposition and to a Liberal leader, Stéphane Dion, challenged and little charismatic what he wanted: a majority in the House of Commons.

But, in a month, the situation has changed and Stephen Harper can probably now just hope to hold on to the head of a minority Government. The Conservatives hold while still 4 to 12 points ahead according to the polls on the Liberals, but the most favourable of these surveys did credited them to 38 of voting intentions, against 28 percent for the Liberals by. However, the threshold for the majority of the 308 seats in the House is around 40.

Last week, Stephen Harper excluded even more defeat, still unlikely. According to Darrell Bricker, President of the Ipsos-Reid Survey Institute, he did not reassure the majority of Canadians who live in the spectre of recession and is concerned about the risk of contagion of the financial crisis in the great neighbor. The opposition continues as the disciple of George Bush, supporter of laissez-faire. "The policies that you are the same as those used by George w. Bush", he recently launched (sovereignty) Bloc québécois leader Gilles Duceppe while Stéphane Dion accuses him of having "weakened the economy to the point that the growth of the Canada for the first six months of 2008 was the lowest in the G8 countries". The latter promises, if he was elected, to establish an audit of government financial agencies. "The US banking system is one of the least regulated in the world," he said.

Contagion in the real economy

On the defensive, the governing party multiplies the reassuring words: "the Canada is not the United States, martelait ten days ago the Prime Minister. The bases of our economy are strong. We have a budget surplus. Our economy continues to create jobs. We have no crisis in our financial system. "The Minister of finance, Jim Flaherty, recently announced a plan to maintain credit available for businesses and individuals, with 25 billion Canadian dollars (more than 15.5 billion euros) to buy mortgages to banks. Not without repeating that they are much stronger than their American neighbours.

But the Canadian financial system is not concern most economists. Their number one concern is the danger of contagion in a real economy already assigned (after several boom years) by the financial turmoil in the United States. Because they absorb 80 of Canadian exports. In Ontario, where for many American companies including automakers GM, Ford and Chrysler, now stricken are implanted, there is concern that the deletions of employment since 2006 are now hundreds of thousands.

The Chief Economist for Scotiabank, a third of the Canada, the Canadian economy is so tied to that of the great neighbor that it will necessarily have an impact. The majority of experts provides at best stagnation, Scotia forecasting a recession, while moderate for the Canada and the United States during much of 2009.

Stephen Harper played his va-tout last weekend in Quebec province where he had great hopes, after the breakthrough of the conservatives in January 2006, but which opinion polls now give a large advance for the Bloc québécois, well positioned to resume 5 seats to the conservatives.