It advances two arguments to convince them

Should he expect a change of scenery in the world economy in 2011 The question is at the heart of the thinking of economists at the end of the year. Almost unanimous, their answer is "no". Last date, Olivier Blanchard, Chief Economist of the international monetary Fund (IMF), said in an interview published on 30 December on the site of the Fund, that, as in 2010 should not expect a recovery in the developed economies emerging economies will continue to move forward at a steady pace.

In October, at the time of the publication of its latest "global economic prospects", the IMF had anticipated to 2.2 the progression of the production of developed countries in 2011, compared to 6.4 in emerging countries. Only the adoption of structural rebalancing measures adopted in the more developed countries could enable them to reduce a portion of the gap that separates them from emerging countries, judge the expert from the IMF.

However, even in the absence of structural adjustment, growth is not threatened, tempering it. Expansionary fiscal policies and the return of the Americans to their old habits of consumption "could support some time the demand and growth", concedes Olivier Blanchard.

"Root of the crisis."

However, these mechanisms recreate "many of the problems that are at the root of the crisis", alert the Economist. The poorest countries, as last year, they benefit massively from the rebound of international trade, fired by emerging economies. An example This year again, sub-Saharan Africa should see GDP grow by more than 5 on average.

However, it expected nothing exciting in Europe. "A full recovery" of the economy of the old Continent "will probably lot of time", cowardly Olivier Blanchard. The Chief Economist of the IMF focuses then on severe manoeuvres of fiscal consolidation undertaken in Europe. "What is essential is not so much to make dramatic budget cuts but to embark on a path of medium-long term stabilization of the debt and, possibly, his reduction." The IMF does not ask brutal fiscal adjustments that could undermine economic activity. He said instead the path of a sustainable change of direction in the direction of better controlled fiscal policies.

The pattern of the economists of the Fund is also called the European countries in serious difficulty to abandon their unwillingness to accept international assistance. It advances two arguments to convince them. First, the establishment of a program joint support by the IMF and the European Union allows to set a cap on rates of borrowed capital. Second, these programs reinforce the credibility of the fiscal discipline commitments made by the States who benefit from.

"Clearer" rules

Olivier Blanchard continued its intervention by arguing with energy for "stress tests" of banks "more credible" those made previously. He finally called for the adoption of "clearer" rules of burden-sharing related to the rescue of the most heavily indebted countries, in defining with precision how many must contribute to the creditors, national Governments and the European Union. "My opinion is that the component of rescue plans, within the purview of national Governments and the European Union, perhaps quite limited", he concludes.