9 in the second quarter against a rise of 2

Might us economic growth settle below its rate of cruise around 3 The issue is debated by economists after the publication of the figures in the second quarter of 2006. Us growth has indeed slowed to 2.5 during the period, or significantly less than the 3 expected by investors and more than two times less than the rate of 5.6 in the first quarter. "Pass the fingers so that we will live in the next four to six quarters is landing smoothly," concluded Friday David Rosenberg in a note to investors. A few days ago, this Economist valued at 40 the chances of a recession next year. While Americans continue, despite several years of sustained growth, not feel improvement in their standard of living that Democrats explained by an increase in inequalities of income the slowdown in growth could weigh on the morale of the Americans, a few months of President Bush's mid-term elections.

"The average growth in the first half of 2006 is higher than that of the second half of 2005, preferred to qualify the economist Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisor society, interviewed by the Wall Street Journal. There is no major slowdown.

But the detail of the figures published Friday however rather concern the commentators. Consumption (70 of the economy in the United States) grew by 2.5, against an average of 3.4 over the last thirty years.

The dilemma for the Fed

For experts, the slowdown of the real estate "constructions of residences are clear recession", said David Rosenberg (read below), as well as rising energy costs are beginning to be felt. Especially, the new equipment and software spending is are packed by 1, while 10 was expected. Total business spending grew 2.7 only, or the smallest gain since early 2004 and many less than 13.7 increase recorded in the first quarter. If a slowdown in household consumption is anticipated, the bet of the authorities since a few months is that companies will take over to support the American economy, which grew by an average of 3.1 since the recession of 2001, and not steps of 3.3 as previously thought the Government. "Business investment are the prominent element of the second quarter," felt so David Rosenberg. Financial markets were rather responded well to the new. For them, this slower growth means that the probability of an increase in interest rates from the Fed over the current 5.25, at its next meeting, fell to 28 instead of 90 two weeks ago.

If the dollar gave ground, the actions and obligations is therefore welcome last Friday. However, this optimism may be short-lived. Americans spending price index (excluding food and energy) increased by 2.9 in the second quarter, against a rise of 2.1 in the first. "There is not be nervous, the most important is the slowdown of the economy," felt a UFJ Economist interviewed by Bloomberg. It is not safe for everyone. "There is no respite on the front of the inflation in the coming months, contributing to the dilemma of the Fed", estimated Global Insights.